I have to admit, the yam-coloured mound of crisco pulled a fast one on me. I was sure his stock “I’ll get back to you in two weeks” gambit was a way to avoid making any decision at all in the hope that the whole mess would go away, as is almost invariably the case when he trots that old chestnut out for the media, but then he turns right around and sends in a strike package that involved something like 125 aircraft, including tankers, in what was without doubt a brilliantly executed attack. The plan seems to have involved a feint westward of B-2s out of Whiteman in Missouri, heading over the Pacific, while the real strike package, another group of B-2s, headed east, over the Atlantic. It looks like the eastbound bombers picked up a “fifth generation” fighter sweep (F-22s, one supposes) when they arrived in theatre, as well as various other support aircraft, including assets (Navy Growlers, maybe?) to suppress enemy air defences, if any, and such details are fascinating to folks like me, but I’m assuming the lay reader just wants the bottom line: did the strike, as claimed, “obliterate” the Iranian nuclear program?
Gee, that would be nice!
However, there’s reason to doubt that they’ve managed to utterly obliterate the few targets they struck, much less eliminate any future prospect of Iran continuing to develop nuclear armaments. We’re told that three sites were hit, some by cruise missiles, and that the B-2s dropped something like a dozen Massive Ordinance Penetrators, some or all of them on the key site at Fordow, and they’ve even released pictures of some of the tidy holes they punched, which images, let’s just assume, really do show the Fordow site, and not some test range in Nevada**:
…but no matter what Donald or Pete Hegseth say, there’s no way to know, yet, just how much damage was done. It depends on whether those bombs penetrated all the way through the rock and concrete. Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, Donald and his minions are going to claim they wiped the place off the (subterranean) map, sure they will, and maybe that’s the exit strategy; no matter what, now, just claim that the strikes were a complete success and another unmitigated triumph for Dear Leader, assert that since there’s nothing left to be done, no further strikes are necessary, inform the Iranians through back channels that if they don’t retaliate against US targets, Donald is done with them, and he doesn’t really care whether the mission was as successful as he’s going to claim in public, so thanks, buh-bye, and now back to our regularly scheduled rounding up of terrified immigrants in California. All hail the Burnt Umber Colossus! Maybe the idea, in that case, is that Iran and Israel can keep going at it, but Trump figures he can now back away, probably much to Bibi’s chagrin, claiming the U.S. has done its part. You know, a good luck, kid, but now we gotta cut out sort of thing. Could that be the plan? If so, maybe Iran doesn’t make a hash of that strategy by lobbing missiles all over the place to hit every US target within range, or taking steps to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Or maybe Trump really thinks, as his social media bleats suggest, that now Iran should come back to the negotiating table, and make a deal after all. Im not sure Netanyahu would be on board with such a scheme, but who knows, maybe these guys are smarter than I think, and the whole point was to give ’em a dose of the old Shock and Awe, then get a presumably chastened Iran to reconsider the sort of deal Trump was offering before, under which they’d be required to give up all domestic enrichment of uranium, rather than merely agree to forgo enrichment beyond the well sub-weaponized level of >4%, while submitting to inspections etc. Maybe Bibi would be on board with that, perhaps on the claimed grounds that not only did they eradicate the current threat, but now the Iranians are agreeing to never be Very Bad Actors again, so presto, no regime change necessary. That could fly, Bibi could sell that, if the Iranians play ball instead of continuing to hurl ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. Maybe that was the master plan?
Yeah, I know, fat chance, on two scores: there probably was no master plan at all, and if there was, it couldn’t have been to bomb the Mullahs back to the table, because, well, that’s a little bit nuts even for these guys, simply because the Iranians were already at the frigging table when the bombing began. The Israelis bombed them away from the table. I mean, even though Trump and his crew might themselves be demented enough to figure gee, OK then, bomb them harder and that’ll bring the buggers back, I have to believe that Bibi, at least, would have explained to them how carrot and stick works, which in this case would require the other side to believe that if they acquiesce, they won’t get bombed any more. If they get bombed whether they’re negotiating or not, it’s all stick, no carrot. It’s stick and stick. Which doesn’t work.
Besides which, no matter what Donald wants, Netanyahu definitely craves regime change in Tehran. He hated the last nuclear deal, and he doesn’t want a new one. He wants the whole bunch killed or put to flight, and that’s it.
So what really went on behind the scenes, I wonder? Since I find it hard to credit Donald with any sort of coherent master strategy, not even of his own, let alone one coordinated with Netanyahu and followed to the letter, I’m left trying to come up with scenarios that make more sense in light of who Trump really is; thus I suspect that Donald really did want to prevaricate for as long as possible and wait for the problem to cure itself somehow, but then somebody, some war hawk, got to him and pushed his oh-so-pushable buttons. The party line now is that Donald always intended to strike, and the “gimme two weeks” thing was just a head fake, but I don’t buy it; I wouldn’t be surprised if Donald was still dithering when Bibi hailed him on a secure line and rubbed his face in the derisive TACO (“Trump Always Chickens Out”) nickname that the Wall Street types coined to describe the on-again-off-again tariff shenanigans of the past couple of months, thereby lighting a fire under his big fat reluctant backside. Beyond his visceral, atavistic fear of appearing weak, Donald probably had no thoughts at all about why he was suddenly committing American forces to war, or what he was going to do on the day after, perhaps assuming that there didn’t have to be a day after. In and out, one-and-done, that’ll work, right? It worked in his first term, when he killed that Quds Force commander guy, Qasem Soleimani, remember that? Ka-boom and it’s all over.
If I’m right, and Donald really wasn’t thinking about what comes next, look for him to start flailing around if it turns out that the one strike hasn’t done the trick, the job isn’t done, Iran’s not capitulating, unpleasant consequences are starting to flow, and holy cow, now he’s got to figure out how to win an actual, honest-to-God, ongoing war. We can expect him to bounce all over the place like a ball bearing in a pinball machine.
So now we wait. So many shoes left to drop!
It always frustrates me, at times like this, how there’s nothing useful for anybody like me to say. Now, we wait. Any moron could tell you as much. The thing I always wonder is whether the people calling the shots have any better idea than I do what’s going to happen next.
I wonder as much even when the relevant policymakers aren’t a bunch of frickin’ idiots.
One thing though: even if all those MOPs got through, and there is, for all practical purposes, no such thing as the Fordow facility any more (which, again, I doubt, not after one strike using a few bombs, albeit very big bombs), the idea that this puts a permanent end to Iran’s nuclear program is pure fantasy. Absent regime change, or a new negotiated settlement, the Mullahs have suffered a setback, maybe a severe setback, but that’s all. That won’t be enough for Israel, I bet, and Donald may find himself dragged along by the inevitable suction of events as the conflict rages on.
Oh, just as an aside, since of course it doesn’t matter, no, Donald does not have the authority under any existing Congressional Authorization of the Use of Military Force to conduct an ongoing war with Iran. It’s a trickier argument, but even last night’s strike, if a discrete one-off, was probably unconstitutional, there being no imminent threat requiring immediate action. But who cares? The Constitution may reserve to Congress the sole authority to declare war, but it doesn’t much matter when Congress has functionally ceased to exist. As Tony Soprano would say, fuhgeddaboutit.
Also, just in case you still think there might be some sort of coherent plan being executed here, consider the chain of events: Trump first threatened the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, following which he sent in the bombers, then executed a bit of an about-face and made conciliatory noises by belching out one of his Truth Social missives, saying that Iran should now come back to the table and make peace so we can all be friends, and apparently sought to bolster the final message by sending his stooges – Hegseth, Rubio, and Vance – out to all the morning shows on Sunday to assure Iran and the rest of the world that goodness, no, regime change was not the objective. Not at all! Perish the thought! Regime change? Who ever said any such thing? That’s just silly! And swear to God, no sooner had they finished delivering this message with great gusto, thus having executed what were presumably Dear Leader’s express instructions, than the cantaloupe-hued maniac broadcasts this:
Back and forth, back and forth, ever since this thing started.
I’ll tell you what this is. This is a goddam clown show.
**Im just being snarky. Civilian satellites can now supply third party imagery of sufficient resolution to verify the surface damage. In fact, the attached photo was taken from one of those satellites, note the watermark of “Maxar”, an outfit that sells high-res images to commercial customers, see: https://www.maxar.com/maxar-intelligence/products/satellite-imagery
the needlefish 